No one has the power to know everything and it is hard for someone to determine something based on opinion. Hamlet is a man who understands how smart he is but also knows his limits. This is why he is such a good thinker and trickster. Hamlet constantly questions himself about all the decisions he made. This leads to his great soliloquy, "To be or not to be." In this scene, we as an audience know that he is being watched by Claudius and Polonius but does Hamlet know? In my personal opinion, he does know he is being watched and everything he says he not only wants us to question it, he wants Polonius and Claudius to question it. Claudius has tried to spy on him before with Rozsencrantz and Guildenstern and the king calls him down to the "encounter" with Ophelia.
The king has tried to spy on Hamlet before by using Rozencrantz and Guildenstern. The queen had told them to go and "check up" on Hamlet and Hamlet had never known about it at the time. "And I beseech you instantly to visit My too much changed son. " (II.ii.35-36) This is very significant because Claudius would do this over and over again if he had to. So we as an audience know he will probably try this again. Now Hamlet knows the king and queen sent Rozsencrantz and Guildenstern. "You were sent for, and there is a kind of confession in your looks, which your modesties have not craft enough to colour." (II.ii.274-276) He can tell they were sent by the king and queen and now the audience and Hamlet knows they were spies. I made the conclusion that Claudius will find a definite way to spy on Hamlet again since this plan failed, now imagine Hamlet who is extremely smart and a very good thinker, he would have thought of this. So his next set of actions would have been with him knowing that Claudius might be spying on him at any moment. This is why with this, in his soliloquy he might have not known that Claudius would spy on him but no matter what he did, he had to take into consideration that Claudius might have been spying on him. Now this all leads up to the decision with Guildenstern and Rozsencrantz, if Claudius and the queen hadn't decided to send them to Hamlet, Hamlet might not have been suspicious and not planned for it. This leads into the second point that would've made Hamlet believe for sure that Claudius was watching.
The king secretly arranges Hamlet to come to him and to run into Ophelia. "For we have closely sent for Hamlet hither, That he, as 'twere by accident, may here Affront Ophelia." (III.i.30-32) I feel this is like a kid thinking he is smarter then a parent. In this case Claudius thinks he is so smart by secretly arranging this meeting, he underestimates Hamlet and how smart he really is. If anyone was put into that position, knowing that you only trust your best friend, Horatio, and when someone else besides him comes to get you then you know something is up, especially when you have the king as your enemy. Now you can look at the next part in many ways, but if you follow his thought process this next point sounds somewhat sarcastic. "Soft you now, The fair Ophelia!" (III.i.88-89) He basically tells us to shhhh, Ophelia is coming... HE IS TALKING TO US as the audience, Shakespeare knows how badly we want to yell out to Hamlet and tell him that he is being watched, and in those final lines he tells us that he knows about Claudius and tells us not say anything because Ophelia is coming and he doesn't want her or Claudius/Polonius knowing that Hamlet knows that they are there. This leads me to conclude that the king underestimated Hamlet and that Hamlet knows Claudius is there because the meeting was to perfect.
Rozsencrantz and Guildenstern were to spy on Hamlet, and the king making a secret meeting for Hamlet gave Hamlet the evidence he needed to know that Claudius would be there when he did his soliloquy. So all he said during the soliloquy and the encounter with Ophelia was meant for Claudius. I do believe that he didn't know that Polonius was there because there was no evidence to suggest Hamlet even knowing Polonius was in on the plan. The evidence can point towards both directions, Hamlet knowing or not knowing that Claudius would be hiding and spying but if you put yourself in that position, how easily would you be fooled?
@Mitchell Mason: You make a good third point which relates to what I wrote. Hamlet sees through the disguises really well because he saw that Guildenstern and Rozsencrantz were sent by the king and queen, and they only have the small feeling of friendship between Hamlet. Now Ophelia who is supposed to love Hamlet, is to hide what she is really doing with just a book? I can relate Hamlet to Sherlock/Sherlock Homes (movies or books) because the two characters are very similar. They are very good thinkers that take everything into consideration and over time have learnt to tell when people lie and easily see through disguises. In the show Sherlock I remember a perfect example in the first episode Sherlock examines John and explains exactly who he was, noticing the smallest detail and figuring out what type of man John was. Hamlet never went to that scale but just like Sherlock, he could definitely tell though the disguise and figure out Claudius was watching him during the soliloquy.
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